I may have taken a big 'swing and miss' on this one, but with limited funds (thankfully).
I took a BULLISH position at 81.735, near a cycle high on a gap breakout. At the time, the cyclical analysis showed this as being in a position for a bullish move in relation to the 20 day cycle as well. Unfortunately, almost as soon as I took the position we were looking at a classic 'gap and crap'.
Instead of being mature and waiting until I had completed a daily down to a minute by minute cycle, I jumped in with a smaller position. In fact the price was buried between two competing trend lines...One bullish, and one bearish, which were getting ready to cross.
The price spiked as low as 80.65, at which point any responsible trader would have been stopped out--I'm still working on a better stop discipline -- but this happened when I wasn't watching the security closely.
The pair is now back up to 81.17 -- still deep in the red, but not as bad.
Of course, given this new data the previous cyclical analysis which was pointing to a bullish cycle trend in the 20 day cycle got completely blown up. I'll complete a more thorough analysis of the USD/JPY this weekend hopefully, but I'm wondering whether I really want to even trade this security...
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