I'm checking out the USD/CAD here in this post.
Sigma Lambda
4.5 year (54 month) cycle
My analysis has us on a low on 11/8/2007 -- that puts us very late in the cycle (in the last third of the 4.5 year cycle) -- bearish.
18 month cycle
Right now there is a suspicion that we went into an 18 month low on May 2nd. We would be in the bullish phase of the cycle right now -- bullish
40 week cycle
This nested with the 18 month -- early in phase -- bullish
20 week cycle
This nested with the 18 month -- early in phase -- bullish
80 day cycle
This nested with the 18 month -- close to peaking -- bullish
40 day cycle
My 'best guess' right now has this dropping into a low sometime around 8am Sunday. The last best fit puts the nominal 40 day at 44.4, but the 40 days is on the 11th. It's *possible* this is already in, but I don't believe so. So for the remainder of this week it's quite -- bearish
20 day cycle
The 20 day cycle is possibly synched up to drop into a low with the 40 day on Sunday, however, the daily chart has this approximated as possibly coming in a day early on the 10th (Friday) -- bearish
10 day cycle
4 hour chart is estimating at or slightly before the 20 day nesting -- bearish
5 day cycle
For some reason the 4 hour estimates this will complete in 4.3 days and should be completing right about now. -- dangerous, but possibly bullish, for now, i'll say, 'neutral'
2 day cycle
My two day cycle count from the 15 minute chart puts the cyclical nest at 0945NYC time tomorrow the 9th of June -- bearish
1 day cycle
2nd one day cycle of the 2 day cycle is peaking and going into a nest at 0945 with the 2 day -- bearish
5 hour cycle
We're seeing a 5 hour low before the 3 day cycle low coming in late tonight... for some reason (missing trading hours) there are not as many bars as would be expected before tomorrow's 0945 expected low -- more details needed on this i think.
alternative cycling
an alternative cycling is seeing the usd.cad as this:
16 hour low in at 0230-0245 ish NYC time on the June the 9th.
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
Monday, June 6, 2011
Gold Update
I was finally able to do a rudimentary initial daily analysis on August Gold with the INVERTED analysis pattern suggested by some cyclical analysts for gold (and other commodities).
I am looking over the daily and here is what we have:
20 week 'nested' peak is showing up at May 2nd. While it's possible we are sitting right on a nominal 40 day peak, there are not nearly as many reinforcing waves as there were during the 20 week cycle which had every lesser cycle synched up to peak at the beginning of May (sell in May, go away, lol)
if this analysis turns out to be valid, I would say that last night's high would more than likely be the high for this week and we really shouldn't be expecting too much from the bullish side in Gold this week, with an outside possiblity that the 40 day cycle did not peak as early as predicted and will crest with a slightly shorter cycle set to peak tomorrow-ish
I am looking over the daily and here is what we have:
20 week 'nested' peak is showing up at May 2nd. While it's possible we are sitting right on a nominal 40 day peak, there are not nearly as many reinforcing waves as there were during the 20 week cycle which had every lesser cycle synched up to peak at the beginning of May (sell in May, go away, lol)
if this analysis turns out to be valid, I would say that last night's high would more than likely be the high for this week and we really shouldn't be expecting too much from the bullish side in Gold this week, with an outside possiblity that the 40 day cycle did not peak as early as predicted and will crest with a slightly shorter cycle set to peak tomorrow-ish
Monday EOD Report, Gold EURUSD and ES
Gold spiked higher last night (up to 1555ish) on the August Futures, and EURUSD and ES continue to grind lower.
I think that a short (yesterday) was a good trade on the ES, but couldn't get a cyclical model I was happy with, so decided that caution was the smart trade.
I have a tiny position in Aug Gold and no position in either the EURUSD or USDJPY.
My cyclical analyzer is messing up terribly so I'm getting a lot of half-baked analysis trying to get the GC# or the Gold Futures continuous chart.
Most of my charts show that gold should actually be higher this time tomorrow (again) so I'll stick with it, though I have some light doubts about the validity of my cyclical model for GC as well.
-out-
I think that a short (yesterday) was a good trade on the ES, but couldn't get a cyclical model I was happy with, so decided that caution was the smart trade.
I have a tiny position in Aug Gold and no position in either the EURUSD or USDJPY.
My cyclical analyzer is messing up terribly so I'm getting a lot of half-baked analysis trying to get the GC# or the Gold Futures continuous chart.
Most of my charts show that gold should actually be higher this time tomorrow (again) so I'll stick with it, though I have some light doubts about the validity of my cyclical model for GC as well.
-out-
Saturday, June 4, 2011
August Gold QMGC#
I have a light position in this. I'm actually moderately in the 'green' after getting an outrageously bad fill on a buy -- my fault -- see my earlier post in this regard.
I have it sitting at: 1542.40
The immediate issue that I see is that there is a Valid trend line on the 80 day cycle that come Monday would be providing overhead resistance to August gold. In fact, it's a bearish trend line and the longer the week goes on, the lower the resistance point.
On the other hand, the same cycle has a bullish trendline somewhere (way) down around 1505 - 1510 ish depending on what day next week (if we were to head down next week).
So let's start from the top -- From the daily chart:
Sigma Lamba (or the sum total of all cycles greater than 20 day cycle)
I have a small problem here in that I'm analyzing August (2011) Gold versus the continuous contract. Therefore, I have no data to analyze the longer cycles, longer than 20 weeks, that is...
For the purposes of our discussion, knowing what I know about the gold market I will call all longer than 20 weeks "Bullish" (in other words, in an uptrend, but without knowing where they are in their cycle).
20 week cycle -- this looks to me like it is peaking or moving past it's peak, and set to hit a cycle low again sometime in August.
80 day cycle -- Bullish
40 day cycle -- Peaking
20 day cycle -- This (should have) nested over the weekend and be pointing up up and away on Monday. The current structure and the cross of the FLD seems to indicate a run at 1600 during the NEXT twenty day cycle...with a small possibility of threatening that price in THIS 20 day cycle.
10 day cycle -- pointing up, peaking around Thursday
5 day cycle -- peaking on monday, nesting end of wednesday, and back upwards by thursday
From hourly chart:
2 day cycle -- nesting sunday morning
1 day cycle -- nesting monday a.m.
If the cycle counts are to be believed next week should be BULLISH for gold. I have no idea how that idea plays into the downward facing VTL up around 1543...and I have yet to do a reverse (reinforcing cycle tops versus reinforcing cycle bottoms) but some other cyclical analysts have suggested we should have or should be topping in here.
I will hold my small bullish position, and PROBABLY place a stop under it. If i get stopped out on volatility I will look to replace my bullish positon at a more favorable price, though it might not be possible.
I am just very concerned about taking major pain/hits without a stop, regardless of what my cycle analysis says, because gold has been notoriously difficult to predict using nested LOWS type cycle analysis.
I have it sitting at: 1542.40
The immediate issue that I see is that there is a Valid trend line on the 80 day cycle that come Monday would be providing overhead resistance to August gold. In fact, it's a bearish trend line and the longer the week goes on, the lower the resistance point.
On the other hand, the same cycle has a bullish trendline somewhere (way) down around 1505 - 1510 ish depending on what day next week (if we were to head down next week).
So let's start from the top -- From the daily chart:
Sigma Lamba (or the sum total of all cycles greater than 20 day cycle)
I have a small problem here in that I'm analyzing August (2011) Gold versus the continuous contract. Therefore, I have no data to analyze the longer cycles, longer than 20 weeks, that is...
For the purposes of our discussion, knowing what I know about the gold market I will call all longer than 20 weeks "Bullish" (in other words, in an uptrend, but without knowing where they are in their cycle).
20 week cycle -- this looks to me like it is peaking or moving past it's peak, and set to hit a cycle low again sometime in August.
80 day cycle -- Bullish
40 day cycle -- Peaking
20 day cycle -- This (should have) nested over the weekend and be pointing up up and away on Monday. The current structure and the cross of the FLD seems to indicate a run at 1600 during the NEXT twenty day cycle...with a small possibility of threatening that price in THIS 20 day cycle.
10 day cycle -- pointing up, peaking around Thursday
5 day cycle -- peaking on monday, nesting end of wednesday, and back upwards by thursday
From hourly chart:
2 day cycle -- nesting sunday morning
1 day cycle -- nesting monday a.m.
If the cycle counts are to be believed next week should be BULLISH for gold. I have no idea how that idea plays into the downward facing VTL up around 1543...and I have yet to do a reverse (reinforcing cycle tops versus reinforcing cycle bottoms) but some other cyclical analysts have suggested we should have or should be topping in here.
I will hold my small bullish position, and PROBABLY place a stop under it. If i get stopped out on volatility I will look to replace my bullish positon at a more favorable price, though it might not be possible.
I am just very concerned about taking major pain/hits without a stop, regardless of what my cycle analysis says, because gold has been notoriously difficult to predict using nested LOWS type cycle analysis.
EUR/USD -- A New Week, An New Perspective
The action in the EUR/USD ended up being quite bullish last week.
As it so happens, before I did the weekend analysis last week, I had a rather hefty position long the dollar index futures (DX) and took it in the shorts before I could exit the position.
Luckily, I did so pretty quickly and 'flipped the script' and went long -- via the EUR/USD pair, not by shorting the DX futures contract.
It's time to begin my weekend analysis. Unfortunately, I have a lot more study to do in regards to my cyclical analysis tools, so I'm still not 100% sure on the accuracy of these predictions... So, if you're crazy enough to find these posts, follow them at your own financial peril. I'm not really linking this up anywhere, so the chances of anyone finding this right now are thankfully pretty slim. It's more meant for a journal for myself.
EUR/USD -
54 Month - bullish
18 Month - bearish
40 week -- peaking/bearish
80 day -- bullish
40 day -- bullish
If the daily cycle count is to be believed, we hit a 'possible' 20 WEEK cycle low on the 23rd of June. sum of all cycles greater than 20 day i'm going to say is, 'bullish to neutral' since I have a bullish cycle all the way up to 40 weeks.
20 day cycle -- This is the cycle I'm trying to trade on a weekly basis. The twenty day cycle will be in its latter third almost all the way through Thursday-ish. While the longer cycles are looking bullish, this would suggest that the EUR/USD could take a breather next week, and perhaps be pressured downward throughout the week, until Friday (assuming longer cycle ranges don't dominate). Either way, big bullish bets should be taken with caution or perhaps not at all until the 20 day low is put in a new bullish cycle is well underway the week after.
10 day cycle -- if the cycle count is to be believed the 10 day cycle will be nesting on or about Thur/Fri, so this cycle suggests caution with any bullish position
5 day cycle -- this cycle appears 'off phase' with the longer cycles and analysis suggests a cycle low early a.m. Tuesday.
To the 15 Minute Chart --
For better or worse, I don't have total agreement between the cycle count on my daily and my 15 minute chart yet. My 15 minute chart shows that the 20 week cycle is anticipated as the same time (June 23rd), but is reading the nominal 20 day cycle as being shorter -- 16.6 days. This would tend to reinforce some of the shorter cycle elements from the daily though...so...
20 day cycle -- quite bearish, and actually bottoming on late Wednesday perhaps (early)
10 day cycle -- peaking Sunday night and turning slowly bearish...bottoming between Thursday/Friday as the longer term daily chart suggested
5 day cycle -- bottoming Sunday night and turning decidedly bullish for the remainder of the week.
2 day cycle off phase with the 5 day and not bottoming until monday midday
1 day cycle -- off phase with the 5 day and not bottoming until Monday midday, also
In summary, regardless of the strong action to close out the week, I don't like this as a strong bullish play until the end of the week, and I don't like this as a bearish play into Thursday because of what I perceive as a bullish underlying trend on the longer cycle lengths. I will start out Sunday by standing pat with my minimum bullish position. 1 unit. I'm expecting bearish moves, and may close it out, but don't feel overly threatened by any short term losses I would take before an expected rebound the week after.
Unfortunately, the 20 week cycle looks like it would maintain it's valid bullish trendline all the way down to 1.41...5 cents + below where it closed out Friday. 1.4633.
As it so happens, before I did the weekend analysis last week, I had a rather hefty position long the dollar index futures (DX) and took it in the shorts before I could exit the position.
Luckily, I did so pretty quickly and 'flipped the script' and went long -- via the EUR/USD pair, not by shorting the DX futures contract.
It's time to begin my weekend analysis. Unfortunately, I have a lot more study to do in regards to my cyclical analysis tools, so I'm still not 100% sure on the accuracy of these predictions... So, if you're crazy enough to find these posts, follow them at your own financial peril. I'm not really linking this up anywhere, so the chances of anyone finding this right now are thankfully pretty slim. It's more meant for a journal for myself.
EUR/USD -
54 Month - bullish
18 Month - bearish
40 week -- peaking/bearish
80 day -- bullish
40 day -- bullish
If the daily cycle count is to be believed, we hit a 'possible' 20 WEEK cycle low on the 23rd of June. sum of all cycles greater than 20 day i'm going to say is, 'bullish to neutral' since I have a bullish cycle all the way up to 40 weeks.
20 day cycle -- This is the cycle I'm trying to trade on a weekly basis. The twenty day cycle will be in its latter third almost all the way through Thursday-ish. While the longer cycles are looking bullish, this would suggest that the EUR/USD could take a breather next week, and perhaps be pressured downward throughout the week, until Friday (assuming longer cycle ranges don't dominate). Either way, big bullish bets should be taken with caution or perhaps not at all until the 20 day low is put in a new bullish cycle is well underway the week after.
10 day cycle -- if the cycle count is to be believed the 10 day cycle will be nesting on or about Thur/Fri, so this cycle suggests caution with any bullish position
5 day cycle -- this cycle appears 'off phase' with the longer cycles and analysis suggests a cycle low early a.m. Tuesday.
To the 15 Minute Chart --
For better or worse, I don't have total agreement between the cycle count on my daily and my 15 minute chart yet. My 15 minute chart shows that the 20 week cycle is anticipated as the same time (June 23rd), but is reading the nominal 20 day cycle as being shorter -- 16.6 days. This would tend to reinforce some of the shorter cycle elements from the daily though...so...
20 day cycle -- quite bearish, and actually bottoming on late Wednesday perhaps (early)
10 day cycle -- peaking Sunday night and turning slowly bearish...bottoming between Thursday/Friday as the longer term daily chart suggested
5 day cycle -- bottoming Sunday night and turning decidedly bullish for the remainder of the week.
2 day cycle off phase with the 5 day and not bottoming until monday midday
1 day cycle -- off phase with the 5 day and not bottoming until Monday midday, also
In summary, regardless of the strong action to close out the week, I don't like this as a strong bullish play until the end of the week, and I don't like this as a bearish play into Thursday because of what I perceive as a bullish underlying trend on the longer cycle lengths. I will start out Sunday by standing pat with my minimum bullish position. 1 unit. I'm expecting bearish moves, and may close it out, but don't feel overly threatened by any short term losses I would take before an expected rebound the week after.
Unfortunately, the 20 week cycle looks like it would maintain it's valid bullish trendline all the way down to 1.41...5 cents + below where it closed out Friday. 1.4633.
Thursday, June 2, 2011
Weekend Swing Shortening
Late last night, I took down some of my EUR/USD longs. The security continues to march upwards and it is supported by the supposed bottoming of some longer term cycles, in addition to the bottoming of the nominal 10 day cycle yesterday afternoon.
However, I trimmed down my position, because I'd like to hold onto the gains for this week.
In addition to the smaller EUR/USD position, I'm holding a loser in the USD/JPY and a marginal loser in the YG (july gold contract).
The USD/JPY is a smallish position so although it's moved pretty decisively against me, I haven't been in as big a rush as I should be to take it off.
The YG (gold position) is two buys, actually. The first one was a terrible fill...I couldn't buy the June as May was ending and went to the next higher contract in the overnight hours...I ended up (stupidly) hitting the ask -- almost more as an oversight and stupidity than anything else, on what was a MASSIVE spread. Later, I picked up another contract at a more reasonable price, but it's looking doubtful if that position will give me a profit before I close it out. It was mildly positive yesterday, but in the early morning US time trading hours, gold took a massive hit and had rebounded slightly by the time I logged in and looked it over.
The current cycle analysis is calling the drop gold overnight as a daily, but we also have a 20 day nominal low trying to be set against that price point now (coming in a good 4 days early). So, if that low is not in Friday could bring some more fireworks to the downside.
All in all, i need the weekend to update my analysis and try to get familiar with the nested HIGHs analysis some of the cycle guys are suggesting is more appropriate for gold.
However, I trimmed down my position, because I'd like to hold onto the gains for this week.
In addition to the smaller EUR/USD position, I'm holding a loser in the USD/JPY and a marginal loser in the YG (july gold contract).
The USD/JPY is a smallish position so although it's moved pretty decisively against me, I haven't been in as big a rush as I should be to take it off.
The YG (gold position) is two buys, actually. The first one was a terrible fill...I couldn't buy the June as May was ending and went to the next higher contract in the overnight hours...I ended up (stupidly) hitting the ask -- almost more as an oversight and stupidity than anything else, on what was a MASSIVE spread. Later, I picked up another contract at a more reasonable price, but it's looking doubtful if that position will give me a profit before I close it out. It was mildly positive yesterday, but in the early morning US time trading hours, gold took a massive hit and had rebounded slightly by the time I logged in and looked it over.
The current cycle analysis is calling the drop gold overnight as a daily, but we also have a 20 day nominal low trying to be set against that price point now (coming in a good 4 days early). So, if that low is not in Friday could bring some more fireworks to the downside.
All in all, i need the weekend to update my analysis and try to get familiar with the nested HIGHs analysis some of the cycle guys are suggesting is more appropriate for gold.
Wednesday, June 1, 2011
GC YG Gold Contract
My preliminary hourly analysis shows that we are nesting into an *expected* (nominal) 20 day low within the next couple of hours....a much shortened 15.8 days.
Of course, I have yet to do the flip analysis where I show the peaks at highs from reinforcing cycles, but that SHOULD (?) present a possible trading opp coming out of that low later tonight.
For me, I'm holding my existing long -- nervously. :)
YG Jul price $1540 ish.
Of course, I have yet to do the flip analysis where I show the peaks at highs from reinforcing cycles, but that SHOULD (?) present a possible trading opp coming out of that low later tonight.
For me, I'm holding my existing long -- nervously. :)
YG Jul price $1540 ish.
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