The action in the EUR/USD ended up being quite bullish last week.
As it so happens, before I did the weekend analysis last week, I had a rather hefty position long the dollar index futures (DX) and took it in the shorts before I could exit the position.
Luckily, I did so pretty quickly and 'flipped the script' and went long -- via the EUR/USD pair, not by shorting the DX futures contract.
It's time to begin my weekend analysis. Unfortunately, I have a lot more study to do in regards to my cyclical analysis tools, so I'm still not 100% sure on the accuracy of these predictions... So, if you're crazy enough to find these posts, follow them at your own financial peril. I'm not really linking this up anywhere, so the chances of anyone finding this right now are thankfully pretty slim. It's more meant for a journal for myself.
EUR/USD -
54 Month - bullish
18 Month - bearish
40 week -- peaking/bearish
80 day -- bullish
40 day -- bullish
If the daily cycle count is to be believed, we hit a 'possible' 20 WEEK cycle low on the 23rd of June. sum of all cycles greater than 20 day i'm going to say is, 'bullish to neutral' since I have a bullish cycle all the way up to 40 weeks.
20 day cycle -- This is the cycle I'm trying to trade on a weekly basis. The twenty day cycle will be in its latter third almost all the way through Thursday-ish. While the longer cycles are looking bullish, this would suggest that the EUR/USD could take a breather next week, and perhaps be pressured downward throughout the week, until Friday (assuming longer cycle ranges don't dominate). Either way, big bullish bets should be taken with caution or perhaps not at all until the 20 day low is put in a new bullish cycle is well underway the week after.
10 day cycle -- if the cycle count is to be believed the 10 day cycle will be nesting on or about Thur/Fri, so this cycle suggests caution with any bullish position
5 day cycle -- this cycle appears 'off phase' with the longer cycles and analysis suggests a cycle low early a.m. Tuesday.
To the 15 Minute Chart --
For better or worse, I don't have total agreement between the cycle count on my daily and my 15 minute chart yet. My 15 minute chart shows that the 20 week cycle is anticipated as the same time (June 23rd), but is reading the nominal 20 day cycle as being shorter -- 16.6 days. This would tend to reinforce some of the shorter cycle elements from the daily though...so...
20 day cycle -- quite bearish, and actually bottoming on late Wednesday perhaps (early)
10 day cycle -- peaking Sunday night and turning slowly bearish...bottoming between Thursday/Friday as the longer term daily chart suggested
5 day cycle -- bottoming Sunday night and turning decidedly bullish for the remainder of the week.
2 day cycle off phase with the 5 day and not bottoming until monday midday
1 day cycle -- off phase with the 5 day and not bottoming until Monday midday, also
In summary, regardless of the strong action to close out the week, I don't like this as a strong bullish play until the end of the week, and I don't like this as a bearish play into Thursday because of what I perceive as a bullish underlying trend on the longer cycle lengths. I will start out Sunday by standing pat with my minimum bullish position. 1 unit. I'm expecting bearish moves, and may close it out, but don't feel overly threatened by any short term losses I would take before an expected rebound the week after.
Unfortunately, the 20 week cycle looks like it would maintain it's valid bullish trendline all the way down to 1.41...5 cents + below where it closed out Friday. 1.4633.
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