August Gold QMGC#

I have a light position in this. I'm actually moderately in the 'green' after getting an outrageously bad fill on a buy -- my fault -- see my earlier post in this regard.

I have it sitting at: 1542.40

The immediate issue that I see is that there is a Valid trend line on the 80 day cycle that come Monday would be providing overhead resistance to August gold. In fact, it's a bearish trend line and the longer the week goes on, the lower the resistance point.

On the other hand, the same cycle has a bullish trendline somewhere (way) down around 1505 - 1510 ish depending on what day next week (if we were to head down next week).

So let's start from the top -- From the daily chart:

Sigma Lamba (or the sum total of all cycles greater than 20 day cycle)

I have a small problem here in that I'm analyzing August (2011) Gold versus the continuous contract. Therefore, I have no data to analyze the longer cycles, longer than 20 weeks, that is...

For the purposes of our discussion, knowing what I know about the gold market I will call all longer than 20 weeks "Bullish" (in other words, in an uptrend, but without knowing where they are in their cycle).

20 week cycle -- this looks to me like it is peaking or moving past it's peak, and set to hit a cycle low again sometime in August.

80 day cycle -- Bullish

40 day cycle -- Peaking

20 day cycle -- This (should have) nested over the weekend and be pointing up up and away on Monday. The current structure and the cross of the FLD seems to indicate a run at 1600 during the NEXT twenty day cycle...with a small possibility of threatening that price in THIS 20 day cycle.

10 day cycle -- pointing up, peaking around Thursday

5 day cycle -- peaking on monday, nesting end of wednesday, and back upwards by thursday

From hourly chart:

2 day cycle -- nesting sunday morning

1 day cycle -- nesting monday a.m.

If the cycle counts are to be believed next week should be BULLISH for gold. I have no idea how that idea plays into the downward facing VTL up around 1543...and I have yet to do a reverse (reinforcing cycle tops versus reinforcing cycle bottoms) but some other cyclical analysts have suggested we should have or should be topping in here.

I will hold my small bullish position, and PROBABLY place a stop under it. If i get stopped out on volatility I will look to replace my bullish positon at a more favorable price, though it might not be possible.

I am just very concerned about taking major pain/hits without a stop, regardless of what my cycle analysis says, because gold has been notoriously difficult to predict using nested LOWS type cycle analysis.