The EUR/USD did indeed hit the Monday trading target of 1.44. It's churned sideways since then, but is still currently trading just over 1.44.
I'll have more analysis of the EUR/USD, but for the short term, I'd like to look at a couple of other securities...
GC (the gold futures contract -- or YG for the emini), and
USD/JPY forex pair.
Obviously, both of these securities are in places where one would *think* that fundamentals drive their price action, but I'm going to approach these two from strictly a technical, cycle driven perspective. Look for each of these in my next two posts.
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Saturday, May 28, 2011
EUR USD and the 20 day cycle
This is going to be my first attempt at chronicling what I believe is transpiring in the Eur/Usd forex pair.
This pair is a toughie because their is SO MUCH news-flow surrounding these two currencies that it really is an exercise to try to ignore the 'noise' and news events. That is (partially) why I'm looking at the 20 day cycle and not possibly something shorter in length. In fact, it may prove impossible for my analysis at this cycle length to have any predictive quality or any better than dart throwing -- we shall see.
I'm also choosing the 20 day cycle because I'm able to do a weekend analysis and talk about what portion of the cycle we're in and (hopefully) what that should mean to price flow.
I'll start with the daily chart on the EUR/USD.
54 month cycle -- the last cycle low was in the second quarter of 2010. the next cycle low is expected in 2015. this cycle has not peaked yet and is a bullish influence on the pair.
18 month cycle -- the last cycle low was perhaps coincident with the 54 month low in the second quarter of 2010. the next cycle low is expected around the end of 2011. this should have a potentially bearish influence
40 week cycle -- this cycle has been running short. so this cycle could have peaked or be in the process of peaking, however, anything over 1.35 keeps the valid trend line (bullish) intact.
20 week cycle -- this cycle just bottomed or is in the process of bottoming. this cycle bottoming is the most supportive of the bullish case while trying to trade the 20 week cycle. while the 18 mo. cycle is slightly bearish, if anything the longer analyzed cycles seem to be supportive of upward pressure on prices. and, if the 20 week has bottomed, should supply bullish pressure for the next month and a half at least.
10 week cycle -- this IS or JUST DID bottom coincident with the 20 week although our historical analysis shows these two cycles slightly out of phase. the cycle bottoming last week would support the bull case for this pair in the upcoming week.
5 week cycle/40 day cycle -- historical analysis shows this running around 36.2 days.
20 day cycle -- this is showing up with a valid (bearish) trendline that Friday afternoon's action has the price bar bumping up against it. On a more bearish note, by Monday, the 20 day cycle will be clearly past peak and pushing downward on the pair.a
10 day cycle -- the 30th, Monday, should be the peak of the 10 day cycle, and later in the week,
5 day cycle -- the 5 day cycle should be pointing downwards by Wednesday as well.
Next, I'll look at the 15 minute chart. And this is where I have some problems that need some resolution
Unfortunately, my 15 minute chart seems out of phase with my daily analysis.
For example, the 15 minute chart is showing May 23rd as a nominal 20 week cycle low. This would be very bullish as virtually every cycle down to the 5 day nominal (which just hit a cycle low on Friday would be pushing a bullish influence on the chart -- a price of 1.44 at some point before the end of Monday's trading would be expected (we're at 1.4282 right now).
It's completely unclear whether this cycle analysis on the 15 minute chart is accurate, so I'm going to check with some other cycle traders and see what they are seeing here.
This pair is a toughie because their is SO MUCH news-flow surrounding these two currencies that it really is an exercise to try to ignore the 'noise' and news events. That is (partially) why I'm looking at the 20 day cycle and not possibly something shorter in length. In fact, it may prove impossible for my analysis at this cycle length to have any predictive quality or any better than dart throwing -- we shall see.
I'm also choosing the 20 day cycle because I'm able to do a weekend analysis and talk about what portion of the cycle we're in and (hopefully) what that should mean to price flow.
I'll start with the daily chart on the EUR/USD.
54 month cycle -- the last cycle low was in the second quarter of 2010. the next cycle low is expected in 2015. this cycle has not peaked yet and is a bullish influence on the pair.
18 month cycle -- the last cycle low was perhaps coincident with the 54 month low in the second quarter of 2010. the next cycle low is expected around the end of 2011. this should have a potentially bearish influence
40 week cycle -- this cycle has been running short. so this cycle could have peaked or be in the process of peaking, however, anything over 1.35 keeps the valid trend line (bullish) intact.
20 week cycle -- this cycle just bottomed or is in the process of bottoming. this cycle bottoming is the most supportive of the bullish case while trying to trade the 20 week cycle. while the 18 mo. cycle is slightly bearish, if anything the longer analyzed cycles seem to be supportive of upward pressure on prices. and, if the 20 week has bottomed, should supply bullish pressure for the next month and a half at least.
10 week cycle -- this IS or JUST DID bottom coincident with the 20 week although our historical analysis shows these two cycles slightly out of phase. the cycle bottoming last week would support the bull case for this pair in the upcoming week.
5 week cycle/40 day cycle -- historical analysis shows this running around 36.2 days.
20 day cycle -- this is showing up with a valid (bearish) trendline that Friday afternoon's action has the price bar bumping up against it. On a more bearish note, by Monday, the 20 day cycle will be clearly past peak and pushing downward on the pair.a
10 day cycle -- the 30th, Monday, should be the peak of the 10 day cycle, and later in the week,
5 day cycle -- the 5 day cycle should be pointing downwards by Wednesday as well.
Next, I'll look at the 15 minute chart. And this is where I have some problems that need some resolution
Unfortunately, my 15 minute chart seems out of phase with my daily analysis.
For example, the 15 minute chart is showing May 23rd as a nominal 20 week cycle low. This would be very bullish as virtually every cycle down to the 5 day nominal (which just hit a cycle low on Friday would be pushing a bullish influence on the chart -- a price of 1.44 at some point before the end of Monday's trading would be expected (we're at 1.4282 right now).
It's completely unclear whether this cycle analysis on the 15 minute chart is accurate, so I'm going to check with some other cycle traders and see what they are seeing here.
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